CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-02-16T03:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-02-16T03:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29261/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the north/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is likely a filament eruption spanning N40W05 to N25W35 which begins to lift-off around 2024-02-16T02:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible from this region in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with post eruptive loops visible in all SDO wavelengths starting around 2024-02-16T05:00Z. There is no clear signature of this CME arrival/glancing blow at L1. There is a minor unclear arrival signature between 2024-02-20T09:15Z and 11Z, with a relatively smooth rotation of magnetic field components, mainly Bz, and an increase in Bt from around 5 nT to 9.5 nT, however this is likely a signature of a streamer blowout.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-19T18:00Z (-9.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 4.5 GONG: mrzqs Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop. Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-02-16T07:55Z Radial velocity (km/s): 770 Longitude (deg): W018 Latitude (deg): N35 Half-angular width (deg): 34 Notes: Low confidence, likely glancing impact at most - with material missing NW, but potentially arrives alongside any potential slight shock from the limb X2.5 flare. No sig impact expected. Space weather advisor: Kirk WaiteLead Time: 17.75 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-02-19T00:15Z
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